Lower Energy Prices, Lower Yields, Macro Factors in Play
Central Bank stimulus programs and dropping oil prices have been the dominant macro factors affecting the capital markets.
As the European Central Bank is launching its quantitative easing program, China is joining the stimulus party with lower interest rates, and Japan is continuing with Abenomics’ easy policies.
Simultaneously, in spite of the falling oil prices, OPEC isn’t lowering production.
In this environment of lower yields and energy prices around the globe, winners and losers emerge.
Countries that rely on exports and production, like Germany and China, are benefiting from low energy prices.
On the other hand, countries that rely on energy exports, like Russia and OPEC countries, see their profits being squeezed.
In the US, the unexpected result is the sustained low yields in bonds.
As many anticipated a rise in interest rates, stimulus packages around the globe are keeping yields down, and US bond yields are affected by this.
Rates in the US are still expected to rise in 2015, but may be not as much, and not so fast.
Stronger dollar makes it more expensive for US export goods, while keeping inflation in check with lowered import prices.
These trends are likely to continue in 2015, and so their effects…